The exit polls for the Rajasthan assembly elections conducted by Aaj Tak and India TV have created a stir today, providing insights into the potential outcomes of the political landscape. Let’s delve into the details of these predictions and what they mean for the state.
Winds of Change in Rajasthan?
The age-old tradition in Rajasthan, will it change or persist? The final verdict will be revealed after the counting on December 3rd. However, as per current exit polls, the tradition seems likely to endure, with predictions favoring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to claim power.
Aaj Tak’s Take
Most exit polls are leaning towards a BJP government in Rajasthan. Aaj Tak’s predictions suggest that the BJP is poised to secure a significant number of seats. While the final outcome will only be known after the counting, the prevailing sentiment is in favor of a BJP-led government.
India TV’s Insight
India TV, through its CNX exit poll, has hinted at the enchantment of Ashok Gehlot’s leadership in Rajasthan. The agency speculates the possibility of a consecutive Congress government in the state. The predictions estimate Congress winning between 94-104 seats, with BJP trailing at 80-90 seats. The remaining 14-18 seats could go to other parties.
Axis India’s Analysis: Exit Poll
Adding to the chorus, Axis India’s exit poll aligns with India TV’s estimation, indicating a close contest between BJP and Congress. However, it brings good news for Congress, projecting them to lead with 86-106 seats compared to BJP’s 80-100 seats. BSP might secure 1-2 seats, and others could claim 8-16 seats.
Vote Share Dynamics
India TV’s Axis My India poll further delves into the intricacies of vote share. Congress is anticipated to secure 42%, a slightly higher share compared to BJP’s projected 41%. Other parties might capture 17% of the vote share.
Chief Ministerial Preferences
Exit polls also gauged preferences for the Chief Ministerial candidate. 32% of respondents expressed a desire to see Ashok Gehlot return as Chief Minister. Surprisingly, Baba Balaknath, BJP’s candidate from Alwar, secured 10% as the preferred CM, raising eyebrows. Former CM Vasundhara Raje garnered only 9% support for reclaiming the Chief Minister’s position.
In conclusion, while exit polls provide a sneak peek into the possible political scenario, the actual outcome will unfold on December 3rd during the counting. The predictions generate anticipation and excitement, setting the stage for an intriguing political aftermath in Rajasthan. Stay tuned for the final results!
In the 2018 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly elections, a total of 200 seats were contested. Various exit polls were conducted by agencies such as Times Now-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India Today-Axis My India, and Republic-C Voter, each presenting different figures. Let’s delve into the details of the exit polls and the actual results.
Rajasthan Exit-Polls – 2018
Exit-Poll Agencies
- Times Now-CNX: Congress – 105, BJP – 85, Others – 09
- ABP-CSDS: Congress – 101, BJP – 83, Others – 15
- India Today-Axis My India: Congress – 119-141, BJP – 55-72, Others – 4-11
- Republic-C Voter: Congress – 137, BJP – 60, Others – 03
Actual Results
As per the Election Commission, Congress secured 99 seats, while BJP managed 73. Independent candidates won 13 seats, and other parties secured 8 seats.
Accuracy of Exit Polls in Rajasthan
The exit poll conducted by ABP-CSDS proved to be quite accurate compared to other agencies. While the results from other agencies showed significant variations, ABP-CSDS closely predicted the outcome.
Madhya Pradesh: Exit-Polls and Results (2018)
Madhya Pradesh witnessed elections for all 230 seats in 2018. Various exit-polls, including those by Times Now-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India Today-Axis My India, Republic-C Voter, and Chanakya, presented diverse predictions. Let’s analyze the exit poll figures against the actual results.
Madhya Pradesh Exit-Polls – 2018
Exit-Poll Agencies
- Times Now-CNX: Congress – 89, BJP – 126, Others – 15
- ABP-CSDS: Congress – 126, BJP – 94, Others – 10
- India Today-Axis My India: Congress – 113, BJP – 111, Others – 06
- Republic-C Voter: Congress – 118, BJP – 105, Others – 07
- Chanakya: Congress – 125, BJP – 103, Others – 02
Actual Results
According to the Election Commission, Congress won 114 seats, BJP secured 109, while other parties and independent candidates won the remaining seven seats.
Accuracy of Exit-Polls in Madhya Pradesh
India Today-Axis My India’s exit-poll proved to be accurate, aligning closely with the final election results. In contrast, other agencies’ predictions deviated significantly.
Chhattisgarh: Exit-Polls and Results (2018)
Chhattisgarh had elections for all 90 seats in 2018. Exit polls conducted by Times Now-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India Today-Axis My India, Republic-C Voter, and Chanakya presented varied predictions. Let’s examine the exit-poll numbers alongside the actual results.
Chhattisgarh Exit-Polls – 2018
Exit-Poll Agencies
- Times Now-CNX: Congress – 45, BJP – 46, Others – 09
- ABP-CSDS: Congress – 35, BJP – 52, Others – 03
- India Today-Axis My India: Congress – 55-65, BJP – 21-31, Others – 5-11
- Republic-C Voter: Congress – 42-50, BJP – 35-43, Others – 3-7
- Chanakya: Congress – 42-58, BJP – 28-44, Others – 1-7
Actual Results
As per the Election Commission, Congress secured 68 seats, BJP managed only 15, and the rest were won by other parties and independent candidates.
Accuracy of Exit Polls in Chhattisgarh
India Today-Axis My India’s exit-poll closely matched the actual results, proving to be the most accurate among the agencies.
Telangana: Exit-Polls and Results (2018)
Telangana had elections for all 119 seats in 2018. Exit polls conducted by Times Now-CNX, India Today-Axis My India, and Republic-C Voter presented different predictions. Let’s examine the exit poll numbers and compare them with the actual results.
Telangana Exit-Polls – 2018
Exit-Poll Agencies
- Times Now-CNX: TRS – 66, Congress – 37, BJP – 07, Others – 09
- India Today-Axis My India: TRS – 79-91, Congress – 21-33, BJP – 05, Others – 10
- Republic-C Voter: TRS – 48-60, Congress – 47-59, BJP – 05, Others – 13
Actual Results
As per the Election Commission, TRS won 88 seats, Congress secured 21, BJP got 1, and others received 10 seats.
Accuracy of Exit-Polls in Telangana
The exit poll by India Today-Axis My India accurately reflected the actual results of the Telangana Assembly elections.
Mizoram: Exit-Polls and Results (2018)
Mizoram had elections for all 40 seats in 2018. Exit polls conducted by Times Now-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India Today-Axis My India, Republic-C Voter, and Chanakya presented different predictions. Let’s delve into the exit poll numbers and compare them with the actual results.
Mizoram Exit-Polls – 2018
Exit-Poll Agencies
- Republic-C Voter: MNF – 16-20, Congress – 14-18, BJP – 0, Others – 3-10
- Times Now-CNX: MNF – 18, Congress – 16, BJP – 0, Others – 6
Actual Results
According to the Election Commission, MNF won 26 seats, Congress secured 5, BJP got 1, and others received 8 seats.
Accuracy of Exit Polls in Mizoram
None of the exit-polls proved to be entirely accurate for Mizoram, with variations in predictions compared to the actual results.
Conclusion
In the 2018 state elections, exit-polls played a crucial role in gauging public sentiment, but their accuracy varied among different agencies. While some exit polls closely predicted the actual results, others deviated significantly. It’s essential to approach exit polls with caution, considering the dynamic nature of politics.
As we reflect on the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram elections, the accuracy of exit polls remains a topic of discussion. The discrepancies emphasize the need for a comprehensive analysis of multiple sources to form a more reliable understanding of public opinion.
In conclusion, exit polls provide valuable insights into potential election outcomes, but their predictions should be interpreted with an awareness of their limitations. The diverse political landscape and ever-changing dynamics make it challenging to predict election results accurately. As we move forward, continuous improvement in polling methodologies and increased transparency can contribute to enhancing the reliability of exit polls in shaping our understanding of democratic processes.